ATLANTIS
Atlantic Sea Level Rise: Adaptation to Imaginable Worst Case Climate Change
The ATLANTIS project, financially supported by the European Union’s DG Research, investigates the implications of a 5-6 metres sea level rise, due to a collapse of the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet, on the Rhone Delta, the Netherlands, and the Thames Estuary. This is one of the first studies to assess the societal consequences of impacts and adaptation to “imaginable worst case” climate change scenarios.
Because of the large uncertainties in the sea level rise scenario, and the even greater uncertainties in the social structure and land use in southeast France, the Netherlands and southwest England in the distant future, the project used only rough estimates of the changes in the natural system. We preferred to avoid developing precise models, as precision would be easily mistaken for accuracy, as any model would be used far outside its domain of calibration and validation. Instead, the project developed dense scenarios (storylines, or future histories) that are largely qualitative in nature, but do reflect, in an internally consistent manner, the complex implications of, say, having to abandon Marseille, Amsterdam or London. The project thus focused on what a 5-6 metre sea level rise would “mean” to people rather than on the “facts”. The scenarios were developed in a series of interviews and workshops with stakeholders.
In addition to the three case scenarios, a formal risk assessment was carried out, a social values and representations approach was enunciated, and the theory of optimal control under catastrophes was applied.
Preliminary results
- Policymakers summary
- Stakeholderinteraction methodology(F.L. Toth and E. Hizsnyik)
- Twopilot designs for the stakeholder workshops(F.L. Toth and E. Hizsnyik)
- Managing the inconceivable: Participatory assessments of impacts and responses toextreme climate change(F.L. Toth and E. Hizsnyik)
- Assessing the risk of a future large sea level rise(R.E. Kasperson, M.T. Bohn and R.Goble)
- Quantified analysis of the probability of flooding in theThames Estuary under imaginable worst case sea-level rise scenarios(R.J.Dawson, J.W. Hall, P.D. Bates and R.J. Nicholls)
- Global estimates of the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet(R.J.Nicholls, R.S.J. Tol and A.T. Vafeidis)
- Decisionmaking under catastrophic risk and learning: The case of the possible collaps eof the West Antarctic ice sheet
(M.-L. Guillerminet and R.S.J. Tol) - Adaptingto five metres of sea level rise(R.S.J. Tol and the ATLANTIS team)
- WorstCase Scenario and Stakeholder Group Decision: A 5-6 Meter Sea Level Rise in theRhone Delta, France(M. Poumadere,C. Mays, G. Pfeifle and A.T. Vafeidis)
- Changement climatique, augmentation du niveau de la mer et (ré)action des parties prenantes : Étude decas à l'aide d'un scénario catastrophe en Camargue(G. Pfeifle, C. Mays andM. Poumadere)
- Facing the dangers of climate change: A sea level rise scenario and case study in France (M. Poumadere, C. Mays, G. Pfeifle and A.T. Vafeidis)
- Neo-Atlantis: Dutch responses to five metre sea level rise(A.A. Olsthoorn, P.E. van derWerff, L.M. Bouwer and D. Huitema)
- Adialogue on responses to an extreme sea level rise scenario in the Thames Region, England(K. Lonsdale, T.E. Downing, R.J. Nicholls, A.T. Vafeidis, R.J.Dawson and J.W. Hall)
- Results from a dialogue on responses to an extreme sea level rise scenario in the Thames Region, England(K. Lonsdale, T.E. Downing, R.J. Nicholls, A.T.Vafeidis, D. Parker, R.J. Dawson and J.W. Hall)
- Tidalflood risk in London under stabilisation scenarios (J.W. Hall, T. Reeder,G. Fu, R.J. Nicholls, J. Wicks, J. Lawry, R.J. Dawson and D. Parker)
See also the stories in the Guardian, the Hamburger Abendblatt and Science.
Project team
Name | Institute | Task |
Richard Tol, Marie-Laure Guillerminet, Hakan Yetkiner | Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Hamburg University | Project coordination, decision analysis under catastrophic risk |
Robert Nicholls, Nassos Vafeidis | Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, London | Physical impact estimates |
Ferenc Toth, Eva Hizsnyik | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg | Stakeholder interactions |
Roger Kaspersen, Maria Bohn | Stockholm Environment Institute | Risk analysis |
Xander Olsthoorn, Peter van der Werff | Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam | Netherlands case study |
Claire Mays, Marc Poumadere, Gabriela Pfeifle | Symlog Institute, Cachan | Rhone delta case study |
Tom Downing, Kate Lonsdale | Stockholm Environment Institute, Oxford Office | Thames estuary case study |